The general election for 15th Lok Sabha has thrown many surprises, some myths as well into political domain. Here is demystifying a few at the state level:
Myth 1:
BJP has been wiped out of Orissa
From 7 seats in the 2004 elections in the Lok Sabha to nil in the current election, it is widely believed the people of Orissa have completely rejected BJP in the state and that it has been extincted from the state without any hope of revival. That it had survived in the state only at the back of Naveen Patnaik’s Biju Janata Dal.
The graphics above speaks for itself. BJP has got 16.89% vote share in the state, higher than the 13.42% share it got in 1996 elections when it fought alone on its strength (and could not win any seat). However, its vote share is down from 19.3% that it garnered in the 2004 elections, a near 3.5% point loss.
In the current election in Orissa, BJD’s vote share has gone up to 37.23% from 30.02% in 2004 polls. And the real loser is the Congress whose vote share has decreased by near 8% points to 32.75% from 40.43% in 2004.
Myth 2:
In UP, Congress has taken away the Muslim voters from BSP, SP
From the beginning, let me make it clear that I don’t know how actually Muslims voted in this elections. My conclusion is based on other indications. In UP, Congress’ fortunes have increased this time dramatically. It has gathered 18.25% vote (21 seats) from 12.04% (9 seats) in 2004. Has it been able to reduce the vote bank of both BSP and SP significantly, no. BSP’s voteshare has declined to 27.42% from 24.67% in 2004, while SP’s voteshare has decreased to 23. 26% from 26.74% in 2004. In UP, the Muslim population accounts for 19% spread over 27 districts of the state. I am not discounting the possibility that Congress may well have increased its voteshare amongst Muslim population, however, the actual loser in UP is the BJP. BJP’s voteshare has decreased to 17.5% from 22.17% in 2004-a near 5% point decline. What does it mean for the hardline Hindutva party in an election where it tried to polarise, or at least hoped to gain from the Varun Gandhi episode? The message is loud and clear-The era of 90s politics is over. It can no more divide and rule.
Beyond The Obvious 